Interestingly, George Friedman who is known for his ability to forecast the future of the international community presents a thesis that implies change and unpredictability are constants on the international stage. This is, of course, not a novel idea and would be confirmed by any student of the social sciences, but it is a unique assertion for a strategist to make. Friedman lays out a historical primer that shows even the casual observer of history should always expect the unexpected when looking to the future. After establishing that change and unpredictability are to be expected, Friedman voices his hope that his children and grandchildren can find some element of utility in the predictions of his work.
Friedman provides the framework for understanding the development and maintenance of the U.S. as a global superpower. He explains the strategic importance of the U.S. through geographic location (the maritime crossroads of Europe and Asia), naval supremacy, and technological advantage (computer languages based on English). Friedman then makes some sweeping assertions that he proceeds to explain. First, the U.S. will continue to be a superpower over the next 100 years. Second, the current conflicts that the U.S. and its coalition partners are engaged in are coming to an end and will be judged insignificant over the course of history. Third, Mexico, Poland, Turkey, and Russia will all rise to positions of power and influence while China will not be militarily threatening and will suffer some internal political and economic set-backs. Finally, the U.S. will face another conflict similar to the cold war with the resurgent Russia.
If these scenarios sound interesting, Friedman’s work comes highly recommended. Friedman bravely attempts to do the impossible—predict the future of mankind. Whether his predictions play out is irrelevant, The Next 100 Years stands as a great read that challenges the reader to question “conventional” assumptions regarding the future of world politics.
“Thank You!” to my thoughtful mother-in-law for giving this book.
No comments:
Post a Comment